NIGHTHAWK ANALYTICS
— EDGE PLAYS
v1.0 MODEL
■
CFB Analytics Terminal — Season 2026

Model vs Market.
Every game. Every line.

GridEdge runs college football through a quantitative projection engine and surfaces exactly where your edge is — and where it is not. Built for bettors who think in numbers, not gut feelings.

LIVE MODEL OUTPUT Week 25 · 2026 CFB Season
Game Market Model Edge Signal
Ohio State vs Georgia OSU -3.5 OSU -6.2 +2.7 LEAN
Texas vs Oregon TEX -1.5 TEX -0.1 -1.4 PASS
Alabama vs Penn State ALA -7.0 ALA -9.8 +2.8 BET
Miami vs Clemson MIA -2.5 CLEM +1.3 +3.8 BET

Sample model output — mock data for illustration only

Core Modules

Everything a sharp bettor needs.
Nothing they don't.

01 DASHBOARD

Daily Edge Scanner

Every CFB game this week laid out in one view. Market spread, model projection, edge in points, confidence rating, and a signal: BET / LEAN / PASS. No fluff.

Spread edge ≥ 3.0
CLV tracker
Total projections
02 GAME DETAIL

Model Transparency Layer

Every factor that fed the projection — offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, pace, home field, strength of schedule, recent form. See exactly why the model likes or passes on each game.

Factor breakdown
ML implied prob
Weather placeholder
03 RATINGS

Team Power Ratings

Clean ratings table for every FBS team — offensive rating, defensive rating, pace rating, overall composite. Filter by team, conference. The foundation of every projection.

Off / Def / Pace
H/A splits
Conference filter
04 BACKTESTING

Model Accountability

Historical performance of every signal the model has ever generated. Win rate, ROI, units won/lost, average CLV, performance by bet type. Prove the edge, or find where it breaks down.

ROI by bet type
CLV analysis
ATS / totals split
05 BET LOG

Manual Bet Tracker

Log every bet you place — line taken, closing line, stake, result, CLV, P/L. See your full betting history in one place and understand what's actually working.

CLV per bet
ROI summary
Export ready
06 SETTINGS

Model Weight Control

Adjust the inputs that drive every projection — offensive weight, defensive weight, pace weight, home field, strength of schedule, recent form. Sliders, saved locally. Includes overfit warning.

6 weight sliders
Local storage
Overfit disclaimer
The Projection Engine

Model factors, always visible.
Always auditable.

Every signal comes with the full factor breakdown. No black boxes. You know exactly what moved the number.

Factor Role Weight
Offensive Efficiency PPG margin vs average defense
85%
Defensive Efficiency Points allowed vs average offense
80%
Pace Rating snaps per game adjustment
55%
Home Field Advantage +3.2 avg in CFB (vs 2.8 NFL)
70%
Strength of Schedule Opponent-adjusted rating impact
60%
Recent Form Last 4 games weighted
45%

Weights adjustable in Settings. Default weights calibrated to 2021-2024 CFB seasons.

Signal Logic
projected_spread = home_rating - away_rating + home_field_adv
edge = projected_spread - market_spread
Edge Signal Action
+3.0 or greater BET Full unit — model has clear edge
+1.5 to +2.99 LEAN Half unit — borderline value
below +1.5 PASS No bet — market is efficient here

For research and educational purposes only. GridEdge does not place or accept wagers. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Users must comply with all applicable local laws and sportsbook rules.

The market is wrong more often than you think.
Now you'll know where.

GridEdge is being built right now. One dashboard. Every CFB game. Model transparency, closing line tracking, and backtesting that holds you accountable.

Built for bettors who want to know why, not just what.